CDHR Analysis: Normalizing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel with U.S. mediation is seen by many as an applaudable diplomatic step toward regional stability and economic prosperity. But is it? In return for the Saudi government’s acceptance of normalization, President Biden has to commit the U.S. to protecting the absolute Saudi monarchy, which has sided with America’s arch enemies time and again. By committing the U.S. to an open-ended military commitment to protect an oppressive ruling family whose domestic cruelty and regional destabilizing aggressive policies have been major sources of regional volatility, Biden continues the U.S.’s decades-old failed policy, as boldly stated by former Secretary of State Doctor Condoleezza Rice, “For 60 years, my country, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region here in the Middle East — and we achieved neither.”
With fifty years in state and national public service and extensive experience with Middle Eastern issues, President Biden understands that the sources of instability, wars and anti-Americanism stem from repressive governance by unrepresentative autocracies and theocracies supported by the U.S. and its democratic allies, including Israel and other external economic and strategic profiteers and their financiers. Given this reality, it’s inconceivable to suppose that President Biden and his top advisors don’t realize that a Saudi/Israeli rapprochement is a continuation of a dated foreign policy that is designed to bolster regimes responsible for utter oppression and instability.
The Saudi/Israeli normalization is partially designed to stabilize the Middle East by emboldening ruling-for-life tyrannical Arab regimes and placate critics, as illustrated here and here. The questions asked are what’s in it for President Biden, for the U.S., for Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and for Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. To start, Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed intent is to exact the highest possible price from the Biden Administration in return for their cooperation to reach a normalization agreement.
Biden is attempting to reconcile his philosophical convictions with America’s strategic and economic domination in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states. Philosophically and religiously, Biden abhors the ongoing death and suffering of innocent people since October 7, 2023. Closer to home, Biden is facing presidential election challenge he is struggling to win, ending the Hamas-Israeli bloodshed could help placate domestic and external critics of his handling of the death and destruction in Gaza, as well as demonstrate that America’s political, economic and military leadership is globally irreplaceable.
Neither Netanyahu nor Crown Prince Mohammed (MbS) is in a hurry to end the carnage in Gaza that could have been stopped before Hamas’s brutal October 7 attack on Israeli settlements. Israeli insiders and other critics, including Israeli publications and especially families of hostages, accuse Netanyahu of prolonging human suffering to avoid his arrest and incarceration once the guns temporarily fall silent. Furthermore, Netanyahu knows that he won’t be welcomed in most countries with the exception of addressing the U.S. Congress and occasional visits to a few rogue states, particularly after the International Criminal Court (ICC) charged him with war crimes
Like Netanyahu, MbS is mired in internal economic, political and social challenges. His misguided policies have created domestic and external enemies. Domestically, he incarcerated, tortured and extorted billions of dollars from his potential royal and non-royal challengers while marginalizing the powerful and influential religious establishment. Externally, he instigated the blockade of Qatar and led the invasion and devastation of Yemen. Economically, he recklessly embarked on fanciful projects that are faltering. Socially, a young, aspiring and educated population is agitating for economic opportunities and political rights. Additionally, due to his role in the murder of Saudi critic Khashoggi, MbS is isolated and shunned by most world leaders apart from Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China.
Crown Prince Mohammed (MbS) and other Arab dictators share Netanyahu’s outlook and strategy toward Hamas, considered by Saudi Arabia and the UAE as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood which deems monarchies illegitimate. The absolute Arab monarchies want the Israelis to destroy Hamas and render the group irrelevant to the future of the Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere. Destroying Hamas is not only an unachievable objective, but a recipe for deadlier wars and devastation. Most Palestinians and suppressed Arab populations look to Hamas and other resistance movements for liberation from their internal repression.
The root causes of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict would not have been resolved by normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia or with all the Arab states. The Israelis and Palestinians consider each other mortal threats to their survival in land they both claim as their own. Like previous wars, the raging bloodshed will achieve nothing more than the catastrophic loss of innocent lives and the destruction, not only of properties, but of dim hope for peaceful coexistence between millions of Israeli Jews and millions of Palestinian Arabs. The Saudi and Israeli conditions are irreconcilable as they were before the war.
Normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia may end the current war, the question is for how long.
