CDHR Analysis: President Trump will be heading for Saudi Arabia this week after the Saudis agreed to invest one trillion dollars in the U.S. economy during Mr. Trump’s 4 year Presidency. This is more than twice the amount he was awarded for making Saudi Arabia his first foreign country to visit in May 2017, where he was received with unprecedented enthusiasm by the Saudi king and his designated successor, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MbS.
In 2017, the Saudis were reeling from domestic economic collapse and from 8 years of being bypassed by the Obama Administration, which shaped and implemented U.S. policies in the Middle East as it saw fit. Case in point, the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, which the Saudi monocracy considered a direct threat to them and to the security of their vast kingdom. Given the current consequential challenges the Saudis and Mr. Trump are facing internally and externally, it is unlikely that he will be accorded the celebratory enthusiasm he received in Saudi Arabia in May 2017. Why?
The Saudis’ seductive offer of one trillion dollars to lure Mr. Trump to make their kingdom his first foreign destination is a well-calculated strategic move. They know that Mr. Trump is economically, strategically and politically weaker now than he was in 2017, while they are in a much stronger position, regionally and globally. This makes Mr. Trump more susceptible to their expected demands. They will demand unconditional development of their nuclear project and a congressionally approved military defense treaty, under which the U.S. would protect the autocratic ruling family and defend its vast country against external aggression. Additionally, they will demand procurement of lethal military hardware. Based on their experience, Trump is untrustworthy, as he demonstrated when the massive Saudi oil facilities were set aflame by Iranian missiles in September 2019.
Aware of what they should expect from the Saudis during his trillion-dollar visit, Mr. Trump and his inexperienced lieutenants are taking steps to show that Trump is worthy of their trust, as demonstrated by authorizing bombardment of Yemen’s Houthis, which the Saudi and the UAE rulers consider an existential threat to their oil wealthy desert kingdoms. Trump is also engaging Iran to abort its nuclear program, calling for a cease fire in Gaza instead of expelling its two million Palestinians and excluding Israel from his visit to the region, among other presidential declarations.
It remains to be seen whether President Trump will cave in to Saudi demands or make promises he cannot keep due to predictable congressional opposition to some of the Saudis’ list of quid pro quo.
